brewhavingaball

It started when A’s GM Billy Beane traded super-utility player Marco Scutaro to Toronto for pitchers Kristian Bell and Graham Godfrey last November.  Then in December, he got pitchers Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, outfielders Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez and infielder Chris Carter allfor Dan Haren.  Thenin January they acquired outfielder Ryan Sweeney and pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Fautino De Los Santos for Nick Swisher.  Later that month, the A’s received pitchers Joey Devine for Jamie Richmond for Mark Kotsay.

In case you lost count, that is 13 players for 4.  Clearly, Beane could not have gotten much in the way of talent too, could he have?  He did.

Eveland is 4-4 (3.82 ERA) and 2nd on the team in innings pitched.  Smith is 3-4 (3.56 ERA) and 3rd on the team in innings pitched.  Devine is 3-0 with 3 holds out of the pen with a 1.23 ERA (not a misprint) in 18 appearances. 

Sweeney has hit .293 and has 22 RBI’s and 15 runs in 46 games.  Gonzalez has only played 7 games with the big club, and while he has hit under.200, all 5 of his hits have been doubles, driving in 5 runs.

 So he got talent too, eh.  No way he got youth.  Wrong.

All three of the pitchers are 24…and they are older than the hitters (Sweeney is 23, Gonzalez 22).

They are cheap too.  None of them are earning even $500,000.

Compare that to what he gave up:

Haren, 27, is 6-4 (3.40 ERA in the NL) and making over $4 million.  In fairness, he is excellent.

Scutaro, 32,  is hitting .267 with 22 RBI’s and 25 runs in 55 games and making over $1.5 million.  Nothing special.

Kotsay, 32, is hitting .295 with 21 runs batted in, playing in 47 games and making over $7 million.  He is currently on the DL with back problems.

Swisher, 27, is hitting .205 with 16 RBI’s in 60 games and making over $3.5 million.  He has been a huge disappointment to the ChiSox.

So if we just look at this trade in the short term, Beane got 5 players for 4, is getting almost as much use out of them (you could make an argument that 2 starters makes what he received better TODAY than what he gave up), and for about $13 million less.  And these trades weren’t made for today.

But really, it didn’t start with the moves in the off-season.  It started when Beane sent Jason Kendall to the Cubs for another catcher, Rob Bowen, last July.  Kendall, who is having a great season defensively, is hitting .245 with 18 RBI’s in 55 games.  Bowen is hitting .258 as the back-up.  Kendall makes over $4 million, Bowen just over $400,000.  The A’s starting catcher, Kurt Suzuki makes less than Bowen and is hitting .260.

Then Beane acquired infielder Jack Hannahan from Detroit.  Then he signed Emil Brown.  He brought Keith Foulke out of retirement.  All three have major roles on the team this year.

Beane also needs to be commended on his low risk, high reward pick-ups in the first 2 months of the season.  Rajai Davis, 27, was cast off across the Bay by the Giants.  He makes near the league minimum, plays great defense, and gives them an element of speed on the bases in late inning, close game situations.  Frank Thomas, 40, was let go by the A’s in the off-season, but re-signed after the Blue Jays signed him to a $12 million deal, and then had to release him.  Thomas gives legitimacy to the middle of the order of a team that is way too young.  Even if he is not vintage Big Hurt, his reputation changes the approach when facing the A’s, and at low cost. 

All of this, and he has created the 2nd youngest roster, and the 3rd lowest team salary.  Oh yeah, they are only 4.5 games behind the Angels and ahead of most of the pre-season favorites for the wildcard.

There will be no miracles for Beane and his A’s this year.  They will fade in August. 

Beane and the A’s will have no need for a miracle in not so long though. 

How good are the D-Backs?  I thought I knew.  Now, I just don’t know.

On May 1, Arizona was enjoying an off day, sitting at 20-8.  The Dodgers were already 5 back and everybody else had lost sight of the D-backs.  Everything was clicking - the pitchers, the hitters, and pitcher Micah Owings had even sparked a win with a pinch hit home run.  Many conceded the NL West that day.  How could anybody compete with the NL runners-up from a season ago?

They came May.  11-17.  What happened?

Some might say that baseball happened.  Those people point out that even the best team loses 54 games, and that success in baseball means responding to struggles.  Those people talk about how humbling the sport is and how this would have happened eventually to any 20-8 team.  There is more to it with this D-back team.

Look at how Arizone got to 20-8:  5-1 vs. Rockies;  4-1 vs. Giants and Dodgers;  4-2 vs. Padres. 

Oh yeah, that is only 17-5.  The Snakes went 3-3 against the Reds and Astros.  And now the pattern should be clear, and the warning alarm sounded.

The D-backs are 20-8 against the West and 9-16 against the rest of the National League (2-1 against a lousy Detroit team in interleague play).  While 20-8 is a great record within your division, and that winning percentage will win a team its division almost single-handedly, this is bad sign for this team, in this division.

Every other team in the NL West has a losing record.  Only the Dodgers are fewer than 10 games under.  Think of it in these terms:  1.) The 2nd placed Dodgers would be in 5th in either of the other 2 NL divisions,  2.) No team in the West has a winning record against any other disivion in the NL,  3.)  The 3 teams at the bottom of the division would ALL be in last place in either of the other NL divisions.  Wow.  That 20-8 doesn’t look so good now.

This next stretch is going to be vital to Arizona if they are to bury their division and find some confidence, or if they are going to hang around .500 and wait for the Rockies or Dodgers to find themselves.  And how intimidating are they going to seem in October if they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record?  We all will be talking about if they will wake up in the post-season.

After today the D-backs start a 10 game road trip (Brewers 3, Pirates 4, Mets 3), then they return home for 6 (KC 3, Oakland 3).  Only 1 of those teams is currently above .500 (the shocking A’s are 2 games over), and two of those teams sit at .500 (Brewers and Mets).  After a month of dreadful play, this has to be the time to take-off. 

Making matters a little more difficult is the serious nature of the injuries to Eric Byrnes.  When was the last time a guy had 2 strained hammies?  They have to treat him with extreme caution.

Still, that rotation should get rolling.  Brandon Webb’s gem yesterday is a great sign after a couple poor outings, but should be taken with a grain of salt because it was against a cellar dwelling Nationals team.  Throw Randy Johnson and Dan Haren in a rotation with that guy, and a team should never lose more than three in a row.  Hell, the bullpen is even tough - closer Brandon Lyon is 12 for 14 in save opportunities with a 1.64 ERA.

But I will look more closely at Arizona’s opponents before I get to excited about how good they are for a while. 

So will their opponents. 

Why do the Padres hate their fans?  And their poor announcers…how do they have any voice at all.  June hasn’t even started!

If you haven’t put all the pieces together, the Friars have been in the news all season for two major reasons:  1.)  They are bad (positively anemic at the plate, ranked 29 out of 30 in runs and OBP, and 28th in BA);  2.)  They have been playing marathons. 

I am not going to rehash any of the “Kevin Towers has to blow it up” stuff, that has been done and is getting boring.  Frankly, I am not sure why anybody is all that shocked - it seems we all were equally shocked that managers Bruce Bochy and then Bud Black had kept them in contention all those years.  I guess just when we started to believe, the roof fell in.  Oh well…on to the good stuff.  Maybe historic stuff.

In the past 6 weeks (since April 17), San Diego has played three 13 inning games, an 18 inning game, and a 22 inning game.  WOW!  If you hadn’t heard - or seen the end of those games - don’t feel too badly, they all took place on the Left Coast.  Even the SunDAY game last week against the Reds (18 innings) ended after 10 in New York.  I left to walk my dog in the 14th and still saw the end of the game.

 You are now asking, “Who cares?”  We all should.

The Pads are averaging 9 1/3 innings pitched per game.  If they continue that over the last 106 games, their staff will pitch more innings than any team in the history of the sport - going back to 1871.  The Friars will pitch 5 more innings in the 162 game season than the ‘64 Yankees who played 164 games that year (1511 to 1506). 

Got your attention yet?

How about these numbers:  San Diego would pitch 14 more innings than the next closest team playing 162 games (’69 Twins) and be the only team other than those Yankees over 1500 innings.

You probably are still very skeptical, and I don’t blame you because you have reasons to be.  First of all, bad teams don’t pitch 9th innings on the road very frequently.  Secondly, the odds are astronomically against the league seeing another 22 inning game and an 18 inning game, let alone for the Padres to be playing in them.  But their is some historical hope for history to be made. 

First of all, the Pads pitched the most innings in the league last year.  They were 2nd in the league 2 years ago.  The Padres are also the only team this century to have pitched enough innings in a season to make the top 50 list in that category (last year ranks as the 17th most innings pitched by one team in a season).  They also have recorded the only other season since 1990 in the top 30 (1996 ranks 9th).  Lastly, if they only pitch the league average (8.95 innings per game) over the course of the last 106 games, they will be only 5 innings short of that top 50 list for a 2nd straight year (don’t get too excited over that, the ‘85-’86 Mets are 12th and 18th respectively). Hmmm…

And the fans out at Petco should be rooting for extra innings - the Padres are 3-2 in those 5 marathons and 19-32 in all games shorter.  (That is clearly a statistical abuse, but it is even more enjoyable when you consider the Cubs are 2-3 in games longer than 11 innings, but 32-18 in all games shorter.  But now I am getting silly.)

Maybe MLB has a master plan…  I can see it now…  September 28th, last day of the season, all the playoff spots are locked up and ESPN needs a “Game of the Week”.  They haven’t shown the Pirates or the Padres in primetime all year (or decade for that matter - neither has a jersey that says “New York”, “Chicago”, or “Boston” on its front.  That is a different blog though.) so ESPN decides to show the race for history - EXTRA INNINGS!  We all will be watching to see if the 80-81 Pirates can break their string of 15 consecutive losing seasons and if the Padres can tie the score in the 9th and go 12 innings to sew up the most innings pitched in one season record.

 Or maybe you are still asking, “Who cares?”

Not often does a player get a standing ovation before his first plate appearance in the Bigs.  Not often does a player get walked in that first plate appearance when the next hitter is a sure-shot, first-ballot Hall of Famer, who will hit 600 home runs.  So take notice of what happened in the bottom of the first inning in Cincinnati’s 9-6 pasting of the Pirates last night because both happened last night.

Jay Bruce, who some in the Reds organization are predicting will be the best player ever to come out of the organization, made a very workmanlike splash into the Reds line-up last night.  He finished 3-3, with two walks (that is 5-5 as far as OBP), 2 runs scored, 2 RBI’s, a stolen base, and a double. 

The how was even more impressive.

After the walk in the first inning, he smacked an opposite field single into left in the third, and walked again in the fifth.  Then came the impressive stuff.  Bruce faced Damaso Marte in the sixth, one of the leagues premier lefty specialist, with the bases loaded and very calmly drove another single through the left side of the infield and kept the line moving for the Reds.  Although Marte was not at his best last night, Bruce has already done better than most lefties who have been around for many years.  In his last at-bat it looked as if he had capped his night off in story-book fashion when he drilled a laser off the wall in right field for an RBI double.  Most in attendance thought they were seeing his first major league home run.  They probably won’t have to wait very long.

Bruce’s mere presence was important for the Reds for all sorts of reasons, not just for his clear ability and spark that had the fans chanting his name before and after each of his plate appearances.  The most immediate help was waking a team that had played an 18 inning marathon on Sunday in San Diego.  But that is minor compared to his long term contribution.

The Reds are looking to move Griffey, who Cincinnati hasn’t turned on, but…let’s just say this marriage wasn’t quite as glorious as both parties expected.  The Reds need a hero, and while rookie starter Edinson Volquez looks fantastic, fans need a reason to go every night, not just every fifth night.  The Reds’ rebuilding effort will also get support locally now that fans can see a solid core (Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto are two other good looking young pieces).

And now they have their hero.

Gone are the days of Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine.  And gone are the days of assumed Braves supremacy in the NL East.  That doesn’t mean that the Braves are out of the picture, or that their success won’t fall on pitchers.  The difference is that this year I can’t figure out how they are doing it.

Any piece on the Braves’ success thus far would be remiss in omitting that Chipper Jones is hitting .418, with 74 hits in 47 games played.  Consider this the obligatory, “WOW” paragraph. 

 There is a bigger “WOW” though.

Chipper and the other bats need to be overlooked because the Braves are 2nd in team ERA in the NL, just behind the Arizona Diamondbacks who have a rotation of Brandon Webb (currently the best pitcher on the planet), Dan Haren (the ace of the A’s last year), Micah Owings (whose pitching gets overlooked because of his tremendous bat), Randy Johnson (yes, he is the 4th starter), Doug Davis (returning from cancer), and Max Scherzer (who is just embarking on a career many think will be stellar).  To be in the same sentence with the D-backs pitching is a compliment to any staff, it even would have been for any of those great Braves teams.

One would think that the Braves must really have gotten everything to break well for them to be pitching so well.  Not even close.  Mike Hampton has not seen the mound yet, John Smoltz has only made half the starts he should have, projected closer Rafeal Soriano has missed 6 weeks, replacement closer Pete Moylan was shut down for the season the week after Soriano’s injury, and Mike Gonzalez, who was the Pirates closer, is not back yet.  So how are they doing it?

Obviously Tim Hudson (7-3, 2.97) has been huge.  Much less obviously, and much less expected has been the contribution from Jair Jurrgens (5-3, 2.86), who was acquired from the Tigers in the Edgar Renteria deal in the off-season.  After that, manager Bobby Cox deserves as much credit as anybody.  Look at the other starters numbers:  Tom Glavine (2-2, 4.76) and is averaging 5 innings a start.  Jo-Jo Reyes (2-2 5.84) and Chuck James (2-3, 8.22) are averaging fewer than 5 innings per start.  That is where Cox comes in.

Cox has mixed and matched a bullpen of Manny Acosta, Will Ohman, Jorge Campillo (might be moved to the rotation), Royce Ring, Chris Resop, Blaine Boyer, Jeff Bennett, and Buddy Carlyle (he has been on the DL most of this month).  None of those names are household names outside of Atlanta.  Sure, Ohman was a workhorse for the Cubs, but nothing spectacular, and he is the best known, healthy, reliever Cox has.  Yet, he quietly has them 2 games in back of the Marlins, tied with the Phillies, in front of the Mets, and very much in the thick of things 1/3 of the way into the season.

I am not sure Atlanta can win the division, or even make the playoffs with the way the injuries are going, but if they can stay close Cox deserves consideration for manager of the year.  He might want to get pitching coach, Roger McDowell, a raise.

If they can get even a little healthy, not even all of the guys - Soriano, Smoltz, Hampton, Carlyle, Gonzalez - and avoid any more pitching injuries, they might just be back in the playoffs.  That is as big a “WOW” as Chipper’s numbers.

It is a ritual that has come to be routine in the Bronx.  It makes people nervous or ecstatic prematurely, but everybody notices, and just about everybody over-reacts.  Some thought this year might be different with Joe Torre in LA and Joe Girardi running the Bombers, but, alas, the same script is being employed.

After a slow trip out of the gate to the 1/4 pole, the Yankees have become, well, the Yankees again.  Point to A-Rod’s return from injury, or a nice combination of blundgeoning the ball and enough pitching, or New York finally hitting spring weather (two months behind the rest of the country), but there is no denying this looks like the run that gets them back in contention.

Consider that the Yankees were 20-25 on Wednesday morning and that the latest 3 losses had come to the scuffling Mets and the surprising and surging Orioles, who had just moved to 24-20 by winning for the 8th time in their last 10 games.  And that 8th win was a 12-2 drubbing of the Yankees, that dropped the Yankees a couple games buried in the AL East’s cellar.  That isn’t part of the script.  Usually the Rays, or the Jays, or the O’s keep the Yankees from occupying the basement in the standings, but not this year.

It seems the response has come.  The Yanks have not lost since Tuesday night - winning 4 in a row and looking to make it 5 with Chien-Ming Wong facing Jarrod Washburn (of the 6.99 ERA) at the Stadium today.  But this run might be prolonged, this might be the one that removes them out of harms way for most of the season.

After today the Yankees travel to Baltimore to face that Oriole team that has lost all four since Tuesday, and seems that it may have pinched itself.  Then comes a 4 game set in Minnesota with a Twins team that has given up 6 or more in 5 of its last 7, and more than 4 in all of those 7.  Then the Yankees return home to face the Blue Jays and KC (who has lost 6 straight as of today).  Here it comes, a demolition of a young Baltimore team, hot bats running through Minnesota, Yankee confidence and mystique intimidating a decent Jays side, and then a standard issue whacking of the Royals.  What do you think - 11-4, 12-3, if you count today in this streak?  They won’t be under .500 after it, whatever they do.

I don’t root for it, but don’t tell me I didn’t warn you.  Now is when the Yankees turn into the Yankees.  Boston can be the focus after that.

Everybody is in an uproar in Metland about Willie.  The “Willie Watch” has even started, and GM Omar Minaya’s change of plans to meet the team in Colorado for this weekend’s series only makes Monday’s return home seem more ominous.  It is hard to argue that the Mets have underachieved, and it is hard to advocate that Randolph has done a great job.  I am not sure he has.  That being said, all this talk about firing Willie because the only other option is to fire 25 players is crazy.  There is a solution, but it requires an open mind and outside-the-box thinking.  Follow me…

First of all, everybody has got to realize by now that Omar did not do quite the job we all thought he had two years ago.  Victor Zambrano is gone, Ollie Perez has returned to his Pirate form, Carlos Delgado has aged, and some of the pieces he removed are doing okay (Kazmir in Tampa, Bannister in KC, and Nady in Pittsburgh).  That being said, Omar did look like a genius last year, and the Ryan Church/Brian Schneider deal looks great so far.  He isn’t bad.  He also isn’t infallible.  So this is not a fire Omar piece.

This is a “send a message to 25 players” piece.  It is a call to change the culture in the clubhouse by supporting the one person with a pedigree of winning.

I believe the biggest problem on this team is heart.  Heart is something that makes people treat winning and losing the same way.  It is attitude.  It makes people show up and speak to the press.  It keeps people from being flambouyant in good times and then petulant in the bad.  New York has seen two of the best examples of heart in the past 20 years - Mark Messier and Derek Jeter. Nobody on the Mets demonstrates a lack of heart more than Jose Reyes.  Last night was the last straw for me.  Even Aaron Heilman, who has been unbelievably horrendous, treats his terrible outings and his okay outings the same way.

Let’s take emotion out of this and think about how trading Reyes could be a boon for the Mets, then we will get back to Reyes’s actions.

First of all, he could be the finest player in baseball.  Nobody can impact a game in a bigger fashion, in more ways, than Reyes.  He really can be that good…and he is only 24.  Some team (and it CANNOT be anybody in the Mets’ division, the Yankees, or the Red Sox) would love to take a chance on that and pay a huge premium.  This is not about rebuilding with prospects or getting a veteran, this trade would require both - getting a first baseman, a shortstop, an outfielder, and a prospect or two.  This is one of those trades.  It can’t happen today, but that is also why Omar should be working on it now.  This is a trade that might take a month, and it should not be rushed.  Frankly, if the Rockies didn’t have Troy Tulowitzki, the Mets could use Barmes (hurt last night, I know), Spilborgs/Taveras, Helton, and a couple decent prospects or bullpen help for Reyes and Delgado. 

Here is Why:

1.)  The clubhouse needs to be cleaned out.  Maybe Billy Wagner should not have called a bunch of guys out for not staying to see the press, but that is going to keep happening until management sends the message it is inexcusable (LoDuca wasn’t crazy after all.  Yeah, he was, but that is another blog).  Trading Reyes would certainly take care of that.  It would also send the message:  We are not about anything but winning, and nobody is safe if we aren’t.  Not a bad lesson for Carlos Beltran, Luis Castillo, or even David Wright (who has been a stand-up guy for these two years, in general). 

2.)  Willie has the only rings on that team.  Don’t yell - I know Pedro, El Duque, and Moises all have rings.  They also would be great additions to this team IF THEY COULD PLAY!  I don’t think any of them have been dodging playing, I think they all are gamers.  The problem is that none of them can be counted on anymore because of their age.  That is not meant to be a dig - Pedro could come back and be a 1A starter to Johan Santana’s 1…or he could pull a muscle two innings into his second start and be out until August 1…then to be pushed back to the 15th.  Alou did come back and make an immediate impact - for 14 games.  Waiting on these vets has become bad for several reasons: A.) it creates a leadership vaccuum; B.) it builds in excuses; C.) it allows players to think the cavalry is on the way, taking a sense of urgency away.  It doesn’t need to be that way, management has a leader that is there everyday.  Randolph has that pedigree.  He is super-competitive and committed to process over flash, but in case you forgot, he was capable of the flash too.  New York fans want rage from him, he knows the umpires don’t respect that.  He knows that what works in baseball is consistency, levelheadedness, persistence.  If management would demonstrate to the players that Willie deserves to be respected, respect would follow.  Maybe consistence would follow too.

3.)  Reyes could fetch just about anything on the market.  Reyes is one of those guys that you could get players AND pass off most of Delgado’s contract.  Some GM will think that he has his centerpiece, and he will, for years to come.  Reyes has tantalizing ability.  As does Ollie Perez.  Sure, Reyes could mature into a leader that wins titles in a new town, but he just as easily could be this inconsistent, moody, enigma, that shows only flashes of brilliance.  So they Mets should be able to find somebody to pay for the flashes, blinding them from the longer term picture of his performance. 

4.)  The problem for the taker is that he is not the guy you want your team taking its cues from.  His dancing in front of the Marlins at the end of last year has been documented.  His benching for lack of hustle in Houston last year has been documented.  But what has changed?  He was dancing during the Yankee series, and pouting in Atlanta in the past week.  A friend of mine mentioned that he might not have a high baseball IQ, and a play against the Nats brings that to mind.  He tried to go 1st to 3rd on a groundout - and 3rd base wasn’t covered, but then he got run down from behind by Christian Guzman.  Guzman is not faster that Reyes.  As I said earlier, last night was the last straw.  After Reyes lead off the 10th with a double, he got picked off 2nd base.  What?!  I hesitate to call anybody I have never met anything as disparaging and demeaning as dumb, so this is not that he is dumb, but I doubt he is a student of the game.  Moreover, I don’t think he is all “id” as Freud might say - if he feels it, he does it.  No organization needs that to be its role model or its emotional leader.

We all know Reyes will be playing somewhere after Willie is done managing.  Do you really think another manager will be able to make Reyes settle down though?

Willie has made mistakes, and his comments in the past week are hard to ignore, but the Mets have to look at a bigger picture. 

Is Jose Reyes a winner?

If he isn’t, now is the time to turn the page and not sacrifice the season or the future. 

The Yankees and Mets are both scuffling along right now - well below expectations - and both are facing teams this weekend who are performing even LOWER than their own pre-season expectations. 

The Yankees are drubbing a Seattle team that has been one of the two biggest underachievers in the American League (Detroit is the other) after being a popular darkhorse pick in the preseason. 

The Mets have traveled out to Colorado to face a Rockies team that has to be the most disappointing team thus far in the NL, given their spirited finish last year that landed them in the World Series (before they got clobbered by the Red Sox).

Just seems funny that the 2 NY teams seem to have run into similar opponents at the 1/4 pole and Memorial Day weekend.  It looks as if the Yanks might be breaking out of their funk - can the Mets do the same?