brewhavingaball

How good are the D-Backs?  I thought I knew.  Now, I just don’t know.

On May 1, Arizona was enjoying an off day, sitting at 20-8.  The Dodgers were already 5 back and everybody else had lost sight of the D-backs.  Everything was clicking - the pitchers, the hitters, and pitcher Micah Owings had even sparked a win with a pinch hit home run.  Many conceded the NL West that day.  How could anybody compete with the NL runners-up from a season ago?

They came May.  11-17.  What happened?

Some might say that baseball happened.  Those people point out that even the best team loses 54 games, and that success in baseball means responding to struggles.  Those people talk about how humbling the sport is and how this would have happened eventually to any 20-8 team.  There is more to it with this D-back team.

Look at how Arizone got to 20-8:  5-1 vs. Rockies;  4-1 vs. Giants and Dodgers;  4-2 vs. Padres. 

Oh yeah, that is only 17-5.  The Snakes went 3-3 against the Reds and Astros.  And now the pattern should be clear, and the warning alarm sounded.

The D-backs are 20-8 against the West and 9-16 against the rest of the National League (2-1 against a lousy Detroit team in interleague play).  While 20-8 is a great record within your division, and that winning percentage will win a team its division almost single-handedly, this is bad sign for this team, in this division.

Every other team in the NL West has a losing record.  Only the Dodgers are fewer than 10 games under.  Think of it in these terms:  1.) The 2nd placed Dodgers would be in 5th in either of the other 2 NL divisions,  2.) No team in the West has a winning record against any other disivion in the NL,  3.)  The 3 teams at the bottom of the division would ALL be in last place in either of the other NL divisions.  Wow.  That 20-8 doesn’t look so good now.

This next stretch is going to be vital to Arizona if they are to bury their division and find some confidence, or if they are going to hang around .500 and wait for the Rockies or Dodgers to find themselves.  And how intimidating are they going to seem in October if they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record?  We all will be talking about if they will wake up in the post-season.

After today the D-backs start a 10 game road trip (Brewers 3, Pirates 4, Mets 3), then they return home for 6 (KC 3, Oakland 3).  Only 1 of those teams is currently above .500 (the shocking A’s are 2 games over), and two of those teams sit at .500 (Brewers and Mets).  After a month of dreadful play, this has to be the time to take-off. 

Making matters a little more difficult is the serious nature of the injuries to Eric Byrnes.  When was the last time a guy had 2 strained hammies?  They have to treat him with extreme caution.

Still, that rotation should get rolling.  Brandon Webb’s gem yesterday is a great sign after a couple poor outings, but should be taken with a grain of salt because it was against a cellar dwelling Nationals team.  Throw Randy Johnson and Dan Haren in a rotation with that guy, and a team should never lose more than three in a row.  Hell, the bullpen is even tough - closer Brandon Lyon is 12 for 14 in save opportunities with a 1.64 ERA.

But I will look more closely at Arizona’s opponents before I get to excited about how good they are for a while. 

So will their opponents. 

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