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Aug 30 2009

CFB Preview 9/3-9/6

Published by brew under CFB Edit This

This is really hard because there are so many different story lines when the season starts.  “The most important games” depend on what you want to see.  Heisman candidates?  Great games?  Coaches that are on the hotseat?  Potential upsets?  Unique and/or contrasting styles?  National title implications?  Interconference rivalries that have been FORCED to the beginning of the year because of conference schedules?
You got a little explanation under each game.  Double check to see what regional game is covered in your area and see if your FSN is picking up anything else…
 
Here is what I did:
I am picking, and ranking, the 5 games I would not miss if I did not have my own issues (Being a PSU/Big Ten fan who loves Pac-10 ball, but follows the old PSU rivals like Rutgers and Maryland).
 
1.) Notre Dame hosts Nevada 3:30 on 9/5 (NBC) - There is NO team that draws more attention than ND.  There is no team that is more influential to the landscape of CFB.  They are coming off a sub par year, after a terrible year, after Weis’s two great years (with Willingham’s players).  This game is HUGE.  H-U-G-E.  Holtz picks a perfect regular season.  Most people expect the Irish to win 10 games this year.  While I think 10 wins is a reach, their schedule is manageable enough, and I could see it with the number of jr’s and sr’s they have returning.  If they lose this season opener, the Weis Watch officially starts 5 minutes after the game.  What makes matters worse for the Irish is that the Wolfpack are a really tricky little opponent.  Very underrated program.  This is a tough first game, and Nevada is not on TV much - they will have so much more to gain than lose.   Nevada brings the funky offensive system called the “pistol” that only about 4 teams run.  And the qb is a really talented kid named Kaepernick who is now a seasoned junior.  Additionally the Pack has two OTHER rb’s who have registered a 1,000 yard seasons.  I was speaking to somebody VERY close to the ND program and he is scared of this game.  Let’s say Nevada gets the opening kick and scores 3, if ND doesn’t score and gets down 10, all Nevada will have to do is grind, albeit for 50 minutes.  If the Irish lose, there should be no Weis Watch, but the season could spiral straight out of the gate - like 5-7 - because of the pressure and expectations.  On the flip side, the WAC has been searching for depth of league wins from some combination of Fresno St., Nevada, Boise St., and Hawaii in the same year.  The WAC would then be able to make the case to unseat the Big lEast as a BCS conference.  An upset in South Bend could be the beginning of major landscape change in cfb.  Did I say HUGE game? 
 
2.) Georgia at Oklahoma State 3:30 on 9/5 (ABC) - You will hear the name T. Boone Pickens about a million times during the game.  OSU is opening a brand new facility that he paid MILLIONS for (think Thurston Howell the 3rd that went to OSU) and the school has its best team since Barry Sanders was there  some 20 years ago.  Some people think this might be a top 10 OSU team.  Georgia took a huge pay day to go out and open the place.  Georgia, after being preseason top 5 for the past 7 or so years, is not ranked that high, but has very similar expectations to that of OSU, maybe top 10, but not as heralded a team.  Here’s the rub…Georgia has really struggled in big games during coach Mark Richt’s tenure.  Georgia needs a big year or he could be in a little trouble, which is ridiculous.  The SEC is hell on wheels, and he makes a big bowl every year.  Still, he loses to Florida EVERY year, and lost to Georgia Tech last year.  Bulldog coaches don’t last too long pulling that exacta.  Meanwhile the Cowboys are really just finishing a rebuild back to national significance.  The biggest news they have made since Sanders graduated was upsetting Oklahoma a couple times to knock them out of the title chase.  This is a big chance.  I have no idea what to expect - Georgia could blow them out (OSU might not be as good as the hype), OSU could win huge (Georgia overwhelmed by what is expected to be an unbelievable atmosphere), or it could be two top 15 teams playing an uptempo, exciting game.  This is a can’t miss though - shifting of powers maybe.  Still, give the Dawgs credit for going to Stillwater for this game.
 
3.) Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta) 8 on 9/5 (ABC) - I am scared to be as excited about this game as I want to be.  These two teams are #5 and #7 in the preseason polls.  So here is why I am worried:  last year Alabama was scheduled to play Clemson in a battle that shapes up JUST like this (Clemson was supposed to be a surprise after a couple mediocre years and Alabama might not be as strong as it had been).  Bama was up 31-0 at half…complete destruction of Clemson, and the Tigers never really recovered - fired their coach.  Va. Tech isn’t firing their coach, Beamer has the 2nd longer current tenure at one place to Paterno.  I don’t like his players (Mike Vick, his brother, and a host of other real humanitarians) but, man, do his kids play special teams and defense.  The numbers on blocked kicks during his time is staggering - I always expect it to be a huge number, and it is bigger.  When they only block 6 or 7 in a year, it is a bad year.  They block 2 or 3 in a game occasionally.  Anyhoo, this game should be a 13-10 slug fest, ESPECIALLY given that D’s are usually ahead of O’s this early.  Maybe 7-3.  I think Bama wins, but this could be one of the best games of the year…just like last year’s Alabama/Clemson game was!
 
4.) Oregon visits Boise State 10:15 on 9/3 (ESPN) - The Ducks deserve HUGE credit for opening the season on the blue turf in Boise.  The Broncos are the uninvited party crashers of the national title picture.  Somehow Boise St. has developed a program and continued to recruit even after a coaching change.  I can’t imagine how they EVER recruit up there.  Whatever.  Oregon is a program in a bit of transition.  This is the first game after Mike Belotti, the long time coach, went up to be the athletic director (along with unofficial AD, Phil Knight of Nike).  Belotti never got to a title game, and always found a way to kinda stumble in a game he shouldn’t have.  That being said, with the exception of Dixon’s last year, before he tore his ACL, I thought they were always a little gimmicky and overrated.  Still, this should be a very entertaining game.  Expect points, and expect early season mistakes - Oregon because of the coaching change, Boise St. because they are not a power conference team with an abundance of talent.  Fun stuff, and it will keep you up.
 
5A.) Missouri vs Illinois (in St. Louis) 3:40 on 9/5 (ESPN) - This game will have some of the most impressive offensive players you will see all year.  Arelious Benn is a WR from Illinois who is a man playing with boys.  The Illini QB, Juice Williams, is Randall Cunningham and Brett Farve rolled into 1.  He can beat you by throwing 5 td’s or running for 5…or he could throw 5 picks and fumble 5 times.  Illinois was one of the biggest disappointments in the whole country last year, and that was largely due to Williams inconsistency.  Missouri will be young, and should get beaten, but the pace at which they played last year - more like a basketball game - could be a deciding factor if the Tigers can repeat the pace, even if they make some more errors.  I like Illinois to have a big year (maybe at the expense of PSU and Ohio State), but they were such underachievers last year, I could see this game wrecking their season.  By the way, this also makes the list because this is a HUGE rivalry.  It is bigger in basketball, but the football side is closing the gap. 
 
5B.) Miami (Fla) at FSU 8 on 9/7 (ESPN) - This partially makes this list because it is a rivalry with huge recent history - say “wide left” to any FSU alum and you will get punched.  This game is always very intense and has a ton of local meaning.  Recently Miami (Fla) has been down.  Way down.  Recently FSU has been very good, not the other-worldly they were in the 90’s.  Miami is supposed to be just about back to national significance.  The ‘Noles are supposed to be better than the .500 mess they were last year, but they have had a bunch of suspensions and academic problems.  Still, now that this is a conference game, it has extra at stake.  FSU feels very picked on, and there will be tons of talk about the wins record between Bowden and Paterno and potentially vacated wins (because of a cheating scandal), but at stake is a team losing title, and maybe even conference title hopes EARLY.  While the Canes need this win, FSU cannot afford to lose it.  And they could lose if Miami stays composed.
 
Okay, so the rest break up into categories and therefore get smaller descriptions, and not even individual ones necessarily.  No particular order.
  
Maryland at Cal 10 on 9/5 (ESPN2) - Cal has done less with more for coach Jeff Tedford’s last 5 years than anybody else in the country.  I asked an alum at the Emerald Bowl why he is allowed to stay and he said, “we hadn’t had a winning season in 30 years.”  Ohhhh.  Well, he has Heisman hopeful RB Jahvid Best and a top 10ish squad playing a Terrapin team that beat them last year.  Look for the revenge, although Maryland will be more physical and sound, just not talented enough to win this road game.  Cal will score quickly, Maryland will grind enough to stay close.
 
Cincinnati at Rutgers 4 on 9/7 (ESPN) - Conference game that could prove to be huge.  Cincy has a really good coach in Kelly and has it rolling.  Rutgers is looking to rebound after a very slow start last year.  They finished strong, but really started badly.  Can’t start slowly this year.

  
Colorado State at Colorado 7 on 9/6 (FSN family) - HUGE rivalry game.  Both teams had disappointing years in ‘08.  This game goes a long way to making the season for CSU, less so for the Buffs, but still, coach Dan Hawkins (the guy who put Boise St. on the map) would make the alums happier by winning.
 
BYU vs Oklahoma (in Arlington, TX) 7 on 9/5 (ESPN)  AND Navy at Ohio State noon on 9/5 (ESPN) - Keep an eye on scores.  I expect these to be blowouts, but if they are close early, it gets harder for the favorite to pull away.  Credit Oklahoma for playing the Cougs.  Ohio State could be looking ahead to the date with USC the following Saturday night - and the Middies are very physical.
 
Minnesota at Syracuse noon on 9/5 (ESPN2) - The Orangemen have a new coach, a new attitude, and are starting the former Duke point guard, Paulus (turned down scholarship offers to ND out of high school), at QB.  If that isn’t enough, Eric Decker, the WR for Minnesota, is a tremendous player.  The Gophers will play wide open ball this year.  Should be interesting.  Looking for Syracuse to lose rather badly though.  Just checking the first quarter to see Paulus.
 
Mississippi at Memphis 3:30 on 9/6 (ESPN) - Mississippi is pre-season top 10 for the first time…in my memory…in my life probably.  Even Eli didn’t get them into the top 10 at any point.  Archie probably did though.  There is a ton of tradition at ‘Ole Miss, even if it is relatively ancient history.  I just have to see if QB Jevon Snead and the Rebels are that good (Memphis will not be).  Shifting power in SEC?  Maybe.  I wonder what Arkansas thinks about Houston Nutt now.
 
Western Michigan at Michigan 3:30 on 9/5 (ABC) - The Wolverines are coming off their worst season ever.  EVER.  Gerald Ford played football at Michigan.  EVER.  They are starting a frosh QB.  The Deroit Free Press has a report of players reporting the program for NCAA rules violations (practice time stuff).  Rich Rodriguez might want to get it turned around because he will be on the hotseat if he loses to an instate MAC team.  This will be Western’s Super Bowl, and they aren’t that bad.  I am thinking upset.  The walls might be closing in on ‘ole Richrod. 

Central Michigan at Arizona 9 on 9/5 (FSN AZ probably) - Another MAC team against another team with a coach on the hotseat.  This coach Stoops (little brother of the Oklahoma coach) has never gotten traction at U. of A.  If he loses this one, it will be another lost year and probably a lost job.  Arizona isn’t close enough geographically to respect the MAC, so they may overlook the Chippewas, unlike Michigan won’t be overlooking Western.  
 

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